Green Jobs and Regional Economic Transition: A Spatial Analysis of Provincial Inequality in Green Employment Opportunities in Indonesia

Fajar Nugroho; Intan Permata Sari; Rendy Kurniawan

Authors

Fajar Nugroho Universitas Cakrawala Indonesia Author
Intan Permata Sari Universitas Mandala Ekonomi Author
Rendy Kurniawan Universitas Borneo Sejahtera Author

Keywords:

Green employment opportunities, Spatial inequality, Just transition, Renewable energy, Regional development, Indonesia

Abstract

Purpose - This study examined provincial inequality and spatial dependence in green employment opportunities during Indonesia's regional economic transition.
Methodology - An illustrative quantitative analysis used a balanced panel of 34 spatially consistent provinces from 2019 to 2024. Inequality indicators, Global Moran's I, local spatial association, and a fixed-effects Spatial Durbin Model were applied.
Findings - The simulated estimates indicated that the mean green employment rate increased from 6.72% to 9.21%, while the Gini index declined from 0.218 to 0.193. Spatial clustering strengthened, with Moran's I reaching 0.394 in 2024 and the spatial coefficient reaching 0.347. Human capital, green public investment, renewable energy, diversification, infrastructure, and urbanization showed positive effects, whereas fossil-fuel dependence showed a negative effect.
Implications - Green employment policy should combine provincial capability building with interprovincial coordination, especially in low-performing and fossil-dependent regions.
Originality - The study integrates green-job measurement, spatial justice, regional inequality, and spatial panel effects at the Indonesian provincial level.

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